Post hoc ergo propter hoc
Table of Content:
- Post hoc ergo propter hoc: The conclusion is assumed to be caused by the preceding event, even though there is no evidence to support this.
The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, often shortened to "post hoc fallacy," is a type of flawed reasoning that occurs when someone assumes that just because one event happens after another, the first event caused the second event. In other words, they believe that if one thing follows another, the first thing must have caused the second thing simply due to their sequence in time.
The fallacy's name comes from the Latin phrase "post hoc, ergo propter hoc," which means "after this, therefore because of this."
Here's a simplified example:
Person A: "Ever since I started wearing my lucky socks, my team has been winning all the games. My lucky socks must be the reason for our success!"
In this example, Person A is committing a post hoc fallacy. They assume that because their team started winning after they began wearing lucky socks, the socks must be the cause of the wins. However, there might be other factors at play that contributed to the team's success.
The post hoc fallacy ignores the possibility of coincidence, as well as other potential causes that might be responsible for the observed outcome.
It's important to recognize that correlation (things happening together) does not necessarily imply causation (one thing causing another). To establish a causal relationship, further evidence and analysis are needed to rule out other factors.
Overall, the post hoc fallacy is a type of faulty reasoning where someone concludes that one event caused another simply because the two events occurred in sequence, without considering other possible explanations or evidence.